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It seems like a crack is passing through the built of the Awakening movements for reasons that aren't completely clear yet while the armed groups are getting their power and arrangements back, they even started to show up and carry on some operations and the two things have some kind of an invisible link in-between.
I tried my best to find about what happened last week; the two hours bullet show…and I got the most assured information that I can get…what happened is like this; the US troops with the Iraqi army are releasing large number of prisoners from the Apache base in Adhamiya, they made a condition that every prisoner must have someone to bail him, so some prisoners didn't have a bailer and that's when the leader of the "Support council" (which is some kind of Awakening) offered to bail every prisoner and it seems the Awakening didn't like this specially if we know that the Awakening is a really complex structure because its members are either former members of AlQaida or people who really don't like AlQaida and were damaged from them or some normal people who wants to have a job! And I can surely say that there is a good number of AQ members among those prisoners as a colleague of mine said when he was talking about his neighbor who is a released prisoner:" I can assure you Mohammed he was in AQ, I'm sure of that as I'm sure of my name…he was released and few hours 4 members of the Awakening came to visit him!! can you believe that…I bet the situation will get worst pretty soon"…so that caused some dispute between the Awakening and the support council…and since we are hearing a lot about the possibility of discharging the Awakening I see it important to know that causes with some history information…from the first day of the Awakening establishment AlHakim and the Higher council of the Islamic revolution didn't like it and wanted to do whatever they can to prevent it from happening for a simple reason that is they don't want legally armed Sunni militias and that's why there was Awakenings in the Shiite areas too to balance the situation and as I said earlier I'm reading Bremer's book now "My year in Iraq' and you can feel what I say in every meeting between Bremer and AlHakim…so it's a very high possibility that the Awakening will be discharged and this will be coordinating with the new wave of the recently trained in Iran armed groups.
As the spokesman of the multinational forces in Iraq said; the armed groups are growing stronger again after they received appropriate training in Iran especially for the use of the silent guns and stick pack bombs to carry on assassinations operations. I think it's clear whose style is this!!....The plan for recruiting them is like this; they take the ones who I'm ashamed to call the Iraqis to Iran and they receive special training by the Iranian AlQuds brigade and they get back to Iraq through the eastern borders…just today the US forces captured two of them in Kut government and they were so drunk to a level that they couldn't stand!! They act under the mask of religion and they drink in Ramadan which is the holiest month for the Muslims!! Also there is some rumors that they will begin a fierce campaign in Qadisia government.
Today those groups begun acting…The chief of the Iraqi journalists union (Moaiad Alami) was slightly injured with some scratches and a number of civilians when an explosive pack detonated near the gate of the union…I was there after the explosion because there is a gas station near the union and I wanted to fill my car but I saw the street was closed by US soldiers and Iraqi police…
Only god knows what the coming days are hiding for us.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
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A Marriot hotel was bombed in Islamabad. It's probably an AQ related bombing. They want the government of Pakistan to stop having anything to do with the west. What you are witnessing may be the resurgence of these groups being opposed to the power exerted by Iran in Iraq. It could also have a broader regional ramification. Can't say, just know Iran wants to be the regional power over there.
Keep the posts coming, my view is like such.
The suuport councils basically are substance-free, useless organizations created by the Government to counter the sunni sahwas. While the Awakening councils´ tas is war-fighting, the support councils simply are sheiks or important people who declare their support for the Government in exchange for favors.
This is just a parade, the Government´s ultimate objective is to crush the sahwa which is pretty much the only major armed force still outside its control (the sunni insurgents have been very weakened). After that, the guys at the top controlling the Security Forces and the ministries can establish a dictatorship without (armed) opposition.
I don´t know that to make of the Special Groups/Mehdi Army/shia militias here. What you´re saying is that the Government has now allied with them and is using their "special" abilities (assassinations with silencers, sticky bombs, the like) to target Awakening leaders. It´s plausible but unlikely, in my opinion; the Government would not risk a resurgence of the Mehdi Army after it clashed heavily with it earlier this year.
about Sahwa that was what I wanted to say...the government don't want them anymore...they used them to achieve the goals they wanted and now they want to throw them away!!!
about the "special groups" I didn't say that!!! they are targeting the icons of the society like they used to do not the awakening leaders and this is clearly the style of the higher council and sometimes JAM, right? and I haven't said they are allied with the government but they knew there will be a wave of violence and most of them aren't with JAM but with Badir or other Iranian-trained groups...I wish I'm clear now and if I wasn't clear about that in the post please guys tell me so that I'll edit it to make it more clear because I don't want you to have a wrong idea.
the awakening movements are no more than mercenaries paid on the regular basis. plis...they cant go to shit in the bathroom unless they take the permission of their superiors (the americans), and the americans know very well how many times they fart a day, perhaps you should read the prince by machiavelli, precisely the chapter about mercenaries during occupation.
hahaha, funny about the farting but from reading your blog I had the impression that you can and want to look differently to things...so what I want to say is this; isn't the whole Iraqi government like this? can AlMaliki fart and the US don't know? can he fart if they didn't allow him! they are a militia I agree with that but they had a big role in changing the things...I'm not defending them but just look at it from this way...when you live in Baghdad among those terrible daily horrors you'll become so desperate for anything that will make you live like humans should live (this might be the plan) so beleive me you wouldn't care even if it was the army of the devil who made things a bit more stable and aren't they better that the drills? I'm not saying we should treat them like heros because they aren't (they did what they did for money and heros don't do things for money but for their country and its peopel) but they did a good thing for the normal Iraqi man who lives by the work of his day...I wish you understanded what I mean.
It seems like Iran is intent on fighting in Iraq via proxy. It's very hard to get a grip on what militia is doing what and against whom.
To me it looks like Iran wants the Badr forces to entrench themselves in Iraqs security forces, giving SIIC long term control over much of the military and police and consequently secure the ultimate power. Also Badr have been assassinating former Baathists and others they percieve as enemies.
The Iranians have also tried to use JAM and "special groups" allegedly tied to JAM to attack US forces and target sunnis more randomly. Which of these actions are independent JAM actions and which are inspired/ordered by Iran seems impossible to say.
It looks to me like Iran try to use the JAM in this fashion because JAM is expendable to Irans real intentions - propping up SIIC/Badr as the utlimate force in Iraq. And they won't unleash Badr against US troops as it would come with a heafty pricetag that would damage their longterm interests.
Sadr must have realised this by now and therefor he decided to lay low. He could be a power in Iraq because he's got a large militia and a solid popular backing among poorer shiites, but he can't fight the US on Irans behalf and the ISF at the same time and expect to prevail. So they wait.
As for the Awakening it's clear that this is a US-paid and sponsored militia that was used very successfully against Al Qaida. I wonder now if Iran and the US will fight a militia proxy-war in Iraq with the Awakening against Iranian militias? That could get really messy.
I also wonder what role of the IA, the ISF and the Maliki government would be. It seems Maliki is sitting on two chairs. Aligned to Iran through his alliance with Hakim and his security forces full of Iranian trained militia members, yet his ultimate security is guaranteed by the US occupation. A puppet with many strings attached to it.
In any case it's a huge mess!
//Marcus
Mohammed, i´m the first annonymous. I´m sorry i misunderstood you. By the way, there certainly seems to be something in the way of increased activity by some "special" armed groups, but who they are or whom are they targeting isn´t clear. I think they are Mahdi Army fighters returning from Iran and attacking government figures.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080924/wl_mideast_afp/iraqunrestbaghdad
I remember when you got back to Adhamiya this February...now you have apparently changed your position, but i agree with what you said at the time, ISN´T THIS THE GREATEST ACHIEVEMENT OF THE WHOLE WAR?
A neighborhood that had been a warzone, controlled by self-styled religious thugs who banned everything from ice to satellite dishes and committed countless violations against their own people, under constant treat of attacks from the Mehdi Army or the US or Iraqi Army and with constant clashes...it was the sahwa who brought peace. The Iraqi Army couldn´t, the US Army couldn´t. No side could win and no side was particularly good, but the sahwa was the best thing that could have happened to the sunni areas.
And yeah, they have committed some abuses - yesterday in Baquba they blew up the house of a displaced shia family that had come back. But perfect solutions don´t exist, we always have to choose the least bad, which is sinonymous with the best.
PS: i don´t know if it´s related, but apparently when the Government and sahwa clash, insurgents find it easier to mount attacks. This has been clear in Diala where today there was a terrible ambush with dozens killed.
Dr M,
You are awfully quiet. I hope you haven't been "disappeared"?
Hey Mohammed,
how are you?
Hello guys I am a Veteran of US army and I ran into your blog you can trust I will be reading your blog it is very interesting stuff. www.blakeleitch.com
Mohammed, are you ok?
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